China’s C919 jet faces turbulent skies amid US-China trade tensions

China’s C919 jet faces turbulent skies amid US-China trade tensions

HONG KONG (AP) — China’s ambition to challenge Boeing and Airbus with its own homegrown passenger jet is running into turmoil, with deliveries of completed planes likely to fall short of the target announced for this year.

The C919 jet – a single-aisle passenger plane aimed at competing with Boeing’s 737 and Airbus A320 – is made by state-owned aircraft maker COMAC. Beijing touts it as evidence of China’s technological progress and progress in self-reliance, even though it uses many Western components.

Trade friction with Washington threatens to prevent COMAC from securing core parts for the program, which has been supported by huge Chinese government subsidies.

“COMAC faces significant risks from the volatile political environment, with its supply chains vulnerable to export restrictions and concrete actions between the US and China,” said Max J. Zenglein, senior Asia Pacific economist at The Conference Board think tank.

C919 has 48 major US suppliers – including GE, Honeywell and Collins – 26 from Europe and 14 from China, according to analysts at Bank of America. Trump threatened to impose new export controls on “critical” software to China after Beijing imposed stricter export controls on rare earths.

“Existing choke points are being exploited in the business process between governments,” Zenglein said. “This is likely to continue as critical dependencies have become political negotiations.”

Beijing has high hopes for the C919, which made its first commercial flight in 2023. The medium-sized jet is meant to help fill the huge domestic demand for new aircraft over the next few decades. China hopes to expand sales beyond its borders and fly globally, including in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

COMAC delivered 13 C919s to Chinese airlines last year and only seven in October this year, despite plans to ramp up production and deliver 30 jets by 2025, according to aviation consultancy Cirium.

China’s largest state-owned airlines – Air China, China Eastern and China Southern – are the only commercial airlines currently flying a total of about 20 C919s.

Trade tensions between the US and China have “directly impacted” delivery schedules for the C919, said Dan Taylor, director of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA. First, production plans were disrupted when the United States suspended export licenses for the jet’s LEAP-1C engines around May and resumed them in July, he said.

U.S.-controlled technology that needs export licensing for the LEAP-1C engines — jointly built by the U.S.’s GE Aerospace and France’s Safran — means the C919’s engines require U.S. export permits, Taylor said, making it “inherently vulnerable to political change.”

“The engine and avionics dependence on Western suppliers continues to subject the program to political decisions beyond COMAC’s control,” explained Taylor.

Geopolitical tensions alone are not the only reason for slower than expected C919 production. The program has been “marked by caution and a prioritization of quality and safety, so there may also be some operational reasons for the slower production ramp-up,” said Zenglein of The Conference Board.

While “it’s always been the goal to reduce reliance on foreign components as quickly as possible” for the C919, Zenglein said, many analysts say it’s a challenging process. China’s own engine alternative – the CJ-1000A under development by the state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) – is still being tested, according to the IBA.

Several airlines outside of China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in flying the C919, but a lack of international certification has so far prevented the C919 from flying outside of China. Certifications from US and EU aviation regulators can take years.

For the C919 to succeed, “it must have each of three things: good economics, a fast global product support network and certification from safety agencies,” said Richard Aboulafia, CEO of AeroDynamic Advisory. “Any one of those three doesn’t mean much on its own,” he said.

China will need 9,570 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, according to Airbus’ latest market forecast, more than 80% of them single-use jets like the C919.

COMAC is facing a growing challenge from Airbus, which is expanding its manufacturing capacity in China. A second assembly line will start operating in 2026, allowing Airbus to once again increase its production of A320 jets in China – an aircraft model similar to the C919.

Analysts expect it will take years for COMAC to break the Boeing-Airbus duopoly in global aircraft share. By the late 2020s, COMAC is likely to grow within China and possibly establish regional exports, IBA’s Taylor said.

In the short term, a lack of international certification will “delay any meaningful Western market entry” for the jet, and export control volatility is likely to continue to undermine its global expansion plans, Taylor added.

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